It started with the iPhone and now it appears that the iPad will follow suit – the backyard weekend tinkering mechanics are no longer allowed under the hood.
We like this analogy, postulated by Jim Stogdill at O’Reilly Radar. Both the iPad and the iPhone are locked down (at least for the average computer tinkerer). There is no multi-tasking (unless authorized by Apple – for their own apps), no playing with the file system (no folder structure), no installing of shareware apps (unless they are blessed by Apple and come via the iTunes App Store), no tinkering with the interface (unless the device is jail-broken). Essentially, the casual user must can’t tinker too much with the iPad – you can adjust your drivers seat settings and mirrors, but not tune the fuel injection.
“The automobile went through a similar evolution. From eminently hackable to hood essentially sealed shut. When the automobile was new, you HAD to be a mechanic to own one. Later, being a mechanic gave you the option of tinkering and adapting it to your specific interests. In fact, that’s how most people up until about 1985 learned to be mechanics. The big changes came with the catalytic converter and electronic ignition (and warranty language to match). Now the automobile has reached the point in its development where you don't even have to know whether it has a motor or an engine to use it, but to tinker at all requires highly specialized skills.„
via The iPad is the iPrius: Your Computer Consumerized – O’Reilly Radar.
So is this a bad thing? Some will say it is. Certainly the initial reaction regarding any new Apple product is from the pundits – typically techno-geeks who are tinkerers at heart. By nature these are the people who are unafraid of what’s “under the hood” and want to get the wrench out to play in the engine compartment. When they can’t, they are confused and annoyed.
We don’t believe the iPad is for those tinker-prone folks. Apple is changing the paradigm – for better or for worse, if you want to play with an iPad, it’ll be under Apple’s rules.
The iPad will appeal to the average person who just wants to get some common computer related tasks done (without the tinkering). See our earlier post, Apple iPad and Real Work.
Bottom line – if you want to get the wrenches and socket-sets out to play under the hood, the Apple iPad should not be your vehicle of choice. But, if you just want to get from point A to point B, without worrying about having to adjust carburetor settings, then iPad will probably appeal to your senses – AND – we’re betting there will be a number of people in that category.
Your argument assumes that there is a market with the people who don’t have a computer already, like my grandmother. I doubt Apple can make the iPad a success based on the Grandma market
Well – certainly not on Grandma alone. But there are a whole lot of 40plus people who are simply only casually connected to the online world. The iPad would allow them to connect in a simple fashion, devoid of support issues and in an intuitive manner (i.e. unbox the iPad and start using it – point, touch and read/write.)
That’s not to say the market will be mid-aged people and seniors, I can see a potentially large market for education and students too.
The proof will be in the adoption rate. We’ll have a better idea of that by mid-year.